Evaluating the efficacy of regionalisation in limiting high-risk livestock trade movements

Using bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in New Zealand as a case example, we develop a novel network simulation model to predict how much the frequency of cattle movements between different disease control areas (DCAs) could theoretically change if herd managers adopted the safest practices (preferentially purchasing cattle from areas with the lowest risk of bTB), if herd managers adopted the riskiest practices (preferentially purchasing cattle from areas with the greatest risk of bTB), or if herd managers made trade decisions completely at random (purchasing cattle without consideration for bTB disease risk). A modified configuration wiring algorithm was used in the network simulation model to preserve key temporal, spatial, and demographic attributes of cattle movement patterns.