Strong fitness differences impede coexistence between an alien water fern (Azolla pinnata R. Br.) and its native congener (Azolla rubra R. Br.) in New Zealand

Despite considerable evidence that alien plants impact the fecundity, productivity and abundance of native plant species, support for alien plant species causing the widespread decline of native species is rare. Coexistence theory proposes that the outcome of competition between two species can be predicted through the invasion criterion, measured as a positive population-level growth rate of each competitor when that species is rare. Here we make use of coexistence theory to examine the likelihood of persistence of a native water fern (Azolla rubra) following invasion by an alien congener (Azolla pinnata) which has apparently displaced the native wherever their ranges overlap in New Zealand. We evaluate coexistence between the two water fern species using experimental measurements of population-level growth rates. We show that the alien A. pinnata has a higher fitness than A. rubra, which hinders coexistence between the two species. These experimental results match the rapid expansion of A. pinnata and the apparent decline of A. rubra observed in nature. Our study predicts that A. pinnata is capable of replacing its native congener, highlights the importance of fitness differences in invasion success, and demonstrates the value of experimental analyses of species coexistence for predicting longer-term invasion dynamics and impacts. Using experiments to test coexistence mechanisms between alien and native species is a valuable approach to predict invasion outcomes and one that can lead to insights on the long-term impacts of alien species, including extinction, on native species populations.